Policy brief: “Harnessing the full potential of early-warning systems and predictive scenarios building on innovative approaches to biodiversity monitoring”
Predictive scenarios and innovative monitoring offer powerful tools to anticipate changes, reduce biodiversity loss, and build a more resilient future. With the right data and cooperation, we can act in time.
Why this matters
Understanding the future of biodiversity under climate change and human pressure is complex—but not impossible. By combining advanced remote sensing with local data, scientists can create predictive scenarios that guide smarter policies and conservation efforts.
BiodivScen projects show how this works across different ecosystems:
- GloBAM used radar data to forecast bird migrations and reduce human-wildlife conflicts.
- BONDS modelled methane emissions in Amazon wetlands under different scenarios.
- REEF-FUTURES explored how reefs might change and which services could be lost under future conditions.
- ACCES & ARCTIC-BIODIVER showed how warming affects Arctic biodiversity and the need for better freshwater monitoring.
Key findings
- Remote radar for birds: Operational weather radar networks—originally designed for weather forecasting—can also detect flying birds, bats, and insects. Using unfiltered radar data, scientists can track migrations, predict bird strikes in aviation, and reduce wind turbine collisions.
- Amazon floodplains: By combining satellite data and local knowledge, researchers created scenarios showing how climate change, land use, and dams affect Amazonian wetlands. These models help guide regional decision-making for people and biodiversity.
- Arctic freshwaters at risk: Warming in the Arctic threatens cold-water species and the ecosystem services they provide to Indigenous communities. But without coordinated monitoring, it’s hard to predict what’s coming. Standardized systems are urgently needed.
- Ocean acidification: In the Nordic seas, cold-water corals and deep-sea ecosystems are under stress from rising CO₂ and temperatures. Long-term monitoring is essential to improve models and inform future marine conservation.
Policy recommendations
- Unlock radar data: Change policies (e.g., OPERA in Europe) to allow open access to raw radar data, enabling better tracking of migratory species at large scales.
- Strengthen monitoring networks: Regional cooperation is vital to collect consistent data across countries—especially in biodiversity-rich but vulnerable areas like the Arctic and Amazon.
- Support Earth Observation (EO): Ensure stable funding and shared tools to access and process satellite data at useful scales. Initiatives like GEO Wetlands can improve how we monitor priority ecosystems.
- Involve local voices: Co-develop monitoring systems with Indigenous Peoples and local communities, particularly in the Arctic, to combine scientific and traditional knowledge.
- Boost ocean monitoring: Create early-warning systems for deep-ocean changes and invest in sustained observation programs in critical marine regions.
