One forest, four futures:
the GreenFutureForest story
How researchers connected global wood demand, forest management and species prospects to explore a century of change
Letting one forest grow four times
The researchers began with one digital forest landscape. Then they let it grow four times. In each simulation, the trees started from the same conditions. What differed were the rules: how much timber was harvested, which areas were protected, whether clearcutting dominated and how often continuous cover or tree retention was used. A century later, the forests no longer looked alike. Nor did the prospects of the species living in them.
GreenFutureForest used the simulations to compare the preferred strategies of four Swedish forest stakeholders and trace their consequences over time. The perspectives came from the state-owned forest company Sveaskog, private forest owners represented by the Federation of Swedish Farmers, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation. Projecting all four strategies across the same landscape and century made their long-term consequences comparable.
The comparison included birds, a lichen dependent on particular host trees and specialist fungi living on dead wood. Their responses depended on different features of the forest and unfolded over different timescales.
Different management choices shape the balance between timber production, retained habitat, continuous forest cover and protected areas. The images illustrate the kinds of forest conditions associated with different scenarios.
Illustrative images generated with AI, partly based on Eggers et al. (2020).
From global demand to decisions in the forest
The Swedish scenarios formed part of a wider modelling chain. GreenFutureForest began with global socioeconomic and climate scenarios, including changes in international timber demand. Researchers estimated how these futures could affect national demand for wood, then translated that demand into regional and landscape-scale management in Sweden, Germany and Switzerland.
Global models can show growing pressure for wood, but not which stands will be harvested, which trees will remain or what those decisions will mean for species. GreenFutureForest connected those scales, tracing how demand from the global economy could ultimately reshape forest habitats and biodiversity.
In Sweden, the researchers compared conventional even-aged forestry with different combinations of continuous cover, tree retention and protected forest. In Germany and Switzerland, scenarios explored harvest intensity, multifunctional forestry, changes in tree species and set-asides.
The same starting conditions can lead to very different forest structures over time. In this example from the Augsburg Western Forests in Germany, a bio-energy scenario reduces structural diversity, while a multifunctional approach maintains a wider range of tree species and forest layers.
Adapted from Toraño Caicoya et al. (2018).
When species move more slowly than forestry
The importance of time became particularly clear for six fungi associated with dead wood. For these species, the existence of a suitable log or tree is only part of the story. Some spread slowly. A forest stand may develop the conditions they need, but be harvested again before they have time to arrive. Standard habitat models can indicate where conditions are suitable, but not whether a slow-colonising fungus can reach them before they disappear. GreenFutureForest therefore developed dynamic models that followed colonisation and local extinction over time.
The consequences differed sharply among the four futures. Under the most production-oriented scenario, the six wood-decaying fungi largely disappeared from stands managed through repeated even-aged clearcutting. Their prospects improved where forests were protected or managed under continuous cover.
In scenarios for other European regions, birds responded less uniformly. Different species benefited from different combinations of tree age, density, structure and composition. Some favoured continuous cover or set-asides, while others performed well under conditions associated with more intensive management. In the Swedish scenarios, the lungwort lichen benefited when management increased the number and density of its host trees.
GreenFutureForest modelled the responses of eleven species of conservation concern, including six wood-decaying fungi, four forest birds and lungwort lichen. Their prospects depend on different features of the forest, from long-lasting dead wood to forest structure and the availability of suitable host trees.
The value of keeping options open
Alongside the ecological scenarios, GreenFutureForest examined how climate uncertainty could change the economic case for different forms of forestry. Extensive clearcutting offered the highest projected returns for some large landowners. Mixed forests and continuous-cover forestry, however, could spread risk and reduce exposure to major disturbances. For smaller or more risk-averse owners, that resilience could function as a form of natural insurance.
The analysis broadened the calculation beyond expected revenue: the most profitable strategy under assumed conditions might not be the most robust if those conditions changed. Taken together, the ecological and economic analyses pointed towards a diversified landscape approach, combining protected areas, different forms of forest management and targeted measures such as retaining particular trees and dead wood.
Forest-planning tools already allow managers to compare how different decisions may affect future timber production and financial returns. Building on existing relationships with forest stakeholders, GreenFutureForest sought to bring species responses into the same process by combining new timber-demand projections, century-long forest simulations and species models.
The consortium also began linking these biodiversity models with established planning tools, including Heureka in Sweden and SILVA in Germany. This created a basis for examining production, forest structure and biodiversity within the same long-term analyses.
With Sveaskog, the findings supported discussions on how conservation could be strengthened across a large working landscape, including the role of particular tree species and alternatives to conventional clearcutting. In Germany, forest authorities, owners and biodiversity specialists helped shape management scenarios and later discussed the results. The project also maintained exchanges with forestry and conservation organisations in Norway and Switzerland on the implications of its findings
Heureka, the Swedish forestry decision-support system, allows users to map forest indicators, visualise stands and compare long-term management outcomes. GreenFutureForest began linking its species models with Heureka outputs, creating a basis for considering biodiversity alongside timber production and other forest values within established planning processes.
Source: Heureka.
Seeing the consequences before they take root
Rather than creating a parallel decision-support process, GreenFutureForest sought to bring biodiversity evidence into relationships and planning tools that stakeholders already used.
It did not identify one ideal forest future. It gave organisations with different priorities a common way to explore where their preferred strategies could lead, using the same landscape, timescale and modelling framework.
By translating those priorities into comparable scenarios, the project made differences visible without requiring the participants to agree on a single preferred future. Forestry decisions will always involve uncertainty and competing demands. GreenFutureForest offered a way to look beyond the next harvest and compare what different choices might produce, preserve or put at risk over the course of a century.
This short film presents GreenFutureForest’s approach and explores how forest scenario modelling can help assess future green infrastructure and the species that depend on it. The video is in Swedish. For English subtitles, select Settings → Captions/CC → Auto-translate → English in the YouTube player
In brief
- Forestry decisions made today can shape a landscape for generations. Forest planning routinely considers their consequences for timber production, while effects on fungi, birds and other species may take decades to become visible.
- GreenFutureForest connected global projections of wood demand with landscape management and biodiversity models. In Sweden, the preferred strategies of four organisations were used to create contrasting futures for the same 100,000-hectare forest landscape.
- The simulations allowed forest owners, public authorities and conservation organisations to compare what their choices might mean over the next century, for wood production, financial risk and species survival.
Explore more impact stories
This summer, Biodiversa+ looks back at research projects supported through its predecessor, BiodivERsA, exploring how scientific collaboration has contributed to policy, practice and innovation. Each story highlights what changed, how researchers worked with stakeholders, and what future projects can learn from their experience.
